I just crunched the numbers on my PCT permit odds and they are depressing

I applied for a Pacific Crest Trail permit for a late April start date last week. The lottery had over 3,000 applicants for only 35 permits per day in that window. I did the math and that is roughly a 1% chance if you don't snag a walk-up. Has anyone else actually gotten one through the lottery system or is it mostly people who scored cancellations?

3 comments

3 Comments

wood.eric1mo ago

Oh man, I feel your pain so much! I tried for a late April start last year and got absolutely nothing in the lottery. I checked my email every single day for a month hoping for a cancellation or something (you know, the whole refresh-fest). I ended up snagging a permit from a cancelation on the PCTA page like two weeks before my planned start date, but it was pure luck - I was sitting there at 2am refreshing like a maniac. The whole system is brutal honestly, feels like you need a miracle or a really flexible schedule. Hope you get one, but yeah, the odds are seriously stacked against us regular folks.

betty_kelly91mo ago

Is it really that serious though? Plenty of people just show up at the trailhead with a walk-up permit (or even just wing it) and still have a great time without all the stress. The PCTA lottery feels like this huge deal online, but in reality, thousands of folks complete the trail every year with way less drama.

ruby_jones1mo agoMost Upvoted

Read somewhere that something like 60% of PCT permits go to walk ups anyway.