Update: a tour guide in Rome pointed at a wall and now I see history as 50/50 odds
Was in Rome two weeks ago, standing near the Forum, and our guide pointed at a chunk of brick and said the empire "could've gone either way" about a dozen times that afternoon. At first I figured it was just a line for tourists. Then he showed us where the grain ships came in and said one bad harvest season or one blocked harbor would've changed the next 400 years. I keep thinking about that on showings now, like every deal could tip either way based on one small thing. So here is my question for this group: what is the one small event you think came closest to flipping everything? I keep coming back to some messenger getting there 20 minutes late.